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#1599
garyyeung
Participant

    Hi all,

    Given the strong US job market, the Fed is very likely to keep their words to cut rates this year. In its March forecast, the Fed’s median projection is for 75bps cuts in 2024, followed by another 75bps in 2025. June this year may be the earliest opportunity for the Fed to start cutting rate. For UK and Europe, the inflation is stickier as they are more prone to the energy shortage with their current economy structure.

    Agree with Ken that unwinding of USDJPY carry trade is concerning, leveraged money market funds are heavily involved in it. I would say those managers must have already looked into other currencies such as GBP/EUR as an alternative of USD.

    Gary

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